Europe’s Wind Lull Has Pushed Up Carbon Emissions This Year

(Bloomberg) -- European carbon emissions have climbed this year as a wind drought forces countries to rely more on fossil fuels to power their economies.

Emissions across the EU are up almost 11% so far this year compared with a year earlier, according to data compiled by Independent Commodity Intelligence Services. Should wind generation remain low through the summer and into winter, it could trigger the first annual increase in emissions since 2022, the consultancy said.

Wind and solar generation are key to the EU achieving its target of cutting fossil-fuel use for energy by 80% by 2040. The intermittency of those power sources means emissions can surge when the wind isn’t blowing or the sun not shining.

In Germany, gas consumption for generating power is at its highest level in at least a decade, according to data from EEX. That, alongside coal generation, is a major polluter and emissions over the remaining seven months of this year would need to fall by a fifth to avert an annual increase, according to calculations based on data from think tank Agora Energiewende.

While gas prices has dropped by about a quarter this year, carbon contracts — needed by fossil fuel generators when they release emissions — are steady, according to data from EEX.

Wind levels have started to recover in May, with emissions ticking down slightly for the month, but that may prove short-lived.

“Models are showing calmer wind conditions for the start of summer, followed by some pick up in August. September onwards the forecast gets a lot more difficult,” said Jess Hicks, a BloombergNEF Weather Analyst. “Overall, there is the possibility for an uptick of wind for the start of winter but November and December could potentially be calmer again like last winter.” 

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